Algeria Anticipates Record Grain Harvest in 2026, Driven by Durum Wheat Production
Image: Algerie Eco
Takeaway
The anticipated record grain harvest in Algeria, particularly in durum wheat, signals a potential shift in the country's import dynamics. Investors in agricultural commodities and shipping should monitor Algeria's tender activity and sourcing patterns, as a decrease in import demand could impact global trade flows. Companies involved in grain storage and logistics could find opportunities in supporting Algeria's expanding grain reserve system.
Algeria is expecting a record grain harvest for the 2025-2026 agricultural season, particularly in durum wheat, according to Minister of Agriculture, Rural Development, and Fishing, Yacine El-Mahdi Oualid. Oualid launched the harvest-threshing campaign on Thursday, May 14, from an agricultural operation in Timimoun. The anticipated record production reflects the initial success of Algeria's strategy to boost its domestic cereal output.
In 2024, President Abdelmadjid Tebboune announced Algeria was on track to achieve self-sufficiency in durum wheat production by the end of 2025. To achieve its goals, Algeria has been transforming its agricultural base by allocating over 120,000 hectares of land to domestic and foreign investors focused on cereal production. In the 2024/25 planting season, the government distributed more than 420,000 tonnes of certified seed, contributing to the planting of over 3 million hectares, of which nearly 85% was dedicated to durum and barley. This move towards food sovereignty came after diplomatic tensions between France and Algeria in 2021 resulted in Algeria not renewing its wheat import contracts with France.
Despite these efforts, Algeria remains a significant wheat importer. USDA forecasts from October 2024 estimated Algeria's wheat production for the 2024/25 season at 3 million metric tons. The USDA projected Algeria's wheat imports for the same season to be around 9 million metric tons, following a record 9.4 million metric tons imported in the previous marketing year. Historically, bread wheat has constituted the bulk of Algeria's wheat imports, accounting for 75% to 80%, while durum wheat imports have represented 20% to 25%.
The expected increase in domestic grain production could benefit local farmers and reduce Algeria's reliance on imports, particularly of durum wheat. However, a potential oversupply of durum wheat could put downward pressure on prices, impacting the profitability of some farmers. International grain exporters, particularly those who have traditionally supplied Algeria, such as France, may face reduced demand. The state-run Office Algérien Interprofessionnel des Céréales (OAIC) has increased procurement from Russia, Ukraine, Romania, and Argentina, in addition to earlier diversification towards Canada and South America.
Looking ahead, the Algerian government aims to cultivate over one million hectares of farmland in Algeria's desert by 2028, focusing on wheat, barley, corn, and legumes. The government is building out its grain reserve system to reach 6.4 million tonnes in national capacity by 2026, including over 350 grain collection centers and modernised port silos. Investors should monitor weather patterns and government policies related to agricultural subsidies and land allocation, as these factors will significantly impact future grain production levels.